Premiership Rugby Top Four Predictions
The wait for the 2018/19 Premiership Rugby season is over as England’s heavyweights scrum down for a top four finish in the regular season. Defending Champions Saracens look favourites, although don’t write off the Chiefs, Wasps or even the Cherry and Whites, who seem to have recruited well. Here are our predictions for a top four finish, ahead of the 2018/19 season.
Saracens
Saracens are chasing a fourth title in five years and when you look at their squad, it appears securing a top four finish is a mere formality. Last season they finished second to Exeter, eight points adrift of the Chiefs.
They started the season in sparkling form until a run of seven consecutive defeats across all competitions, sparked by a Champions Cup group stage thrashing by European rivals Clermont. They may have lost form during this time but never hope.
One of the main problems for Mark McCall during this period was the form and fitness of returning British and Irish Lions, Mako Vunipola, Jamie George, Liam Williams, Owen Farrell and Maro Itoje. Billy Vunipola also missed a large chunk of the season with injury, although one has to say Jackson Wray was an outstanding replacement, Saracens player of the season!
Another challenge for McCall, was the amount of players he lost during the Autumn International window. He was lucky not to have lost more considering the form of Michael Rhodes and Alex Goode!
Both Rhodes and Goode were exceptional last year, while Vincent Koch was one of the best tight-head props in the country. I find it remarkable that Rassie Erasmus has ignored him for the Springboks. Perhaps his shot will come in the November Tests.
They have lost quality and experience with the retirements of Schalk Britz and Chris Wyles, while speedster Nathan Earle has decided to move to Harlequins.
Alex Lewington, David Strettle and Tom Woolstencroft have all been drafted in during the off season, not really the sort of signings you would expect from a side looking to consolidate their position as one of the best clubs in Europe. Then Saracens do have some financial issues that have handicapped them in the recruitment side.
Saracens will take some stopping and are 13/8 to be crowned Premiership Champions again and 15/8 to finish the regular season top of the standings.
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Exeter Chiefs
What can you say about the 2017/18 regular season table toppers Exeter! The Chiefs have reached the last three Premiership finals winning in 2016/17, but falling short to rivals Saracens last season. Their record is nothing short of remarkable when you consider they have one of the smallest budgets out of all the top clubs in the league.
Their academy has flourished in recent years with the likes of Luke Cowan Dickie, wing Jack Nowell, Henry Slade and number eight Sam Simmonds, all getting full honours at international level for England.
Zimbabwean-born Don Armand has been one of the outstanding captures by coach Rob Baxter and is a massively influential player for the Chiefs. Armand was a Currie Cup winner with Western Province and joined the Chiefs in 2013. His work in the lineout is world class and is the main driver of their clinical maul, not to mention a lucrative source of tries.
Alex Cuthbert is their only new recruit, although not a bad one. The Welsh International brings plenty of experience, however has suffered from injury over recent years.
There is nothing flash about the Chief’s approach. They keep possession better than any team and build phase after phase with their physical runners.
You can get the Chiefs at 9/4 to repeat their feat as last season table toppers and the same price to be crowned champions again.
Season Highlights – Aviva Premiership Rugby 2017/18
Wasps
On their day Wasps can take any team down. Their attacking play can finish a game as a contest early on if their opponents are not on their game defensively. Last season Wasps finished second to Saracens in tries scored, second in defenders beaten and topped the charts in clean breaks, underlining their attacking threat.
In Christian Wade they have the joint Premiership top try scorer, with Wade available at 5/1 to achieve this feat again. One wonders how much more the winger has to do to catch the attention of Eddie Jones.
Willie Le Roux had an outstanding first season, adding plenty of attacking flair from the back, although his rejuvenated form has also led to a Springbok recall, great news for South African fans, but not so much for the Wasps faithful.
Another South African in Juan De Jongh also had a superb first full season, and alongside Elliot Daly could form the best midfield pairing in the country.
In the pack, Joe Launchbury and Nathan Hughes fitness will be crucial, while Ashley Johnson’s ability to play on the side of the scrum or at hooker gives them a dynamic option.
Nizaam Carr returns to Wasps after a season of Super Rugby with the Stormers, while Brad Shields is the most notable new recruit. The New Zealand number eight was a surprise call up by Eddie Jones for England’s summer tour of South Africa, and after eight years in Super Rugby with the Hurricanes, the 27-year-old has decided to ply his trade with Wasps, in order to cement his place in the England squad ahead of the World Cup.
Experience in Shields coming in, while experience in James Haskell going out. After 13-years at the club (two spells), Haskell has decided to move over to Northampton.
I really like the look of Wasps and like their style of play. I also like their price at 5/1 to finish top of the table and win the Premiership.
Gloucester
This might be a big call when you consider the Cherry and Whites finished seventh in the standings last season. The reality is they only finished seven points off Newcastle in fourth, and when you look at their new recruits, they have brought in players that are worth much more than seven points.
Coach Johan Ackermann is coming into his second full season. He has had a rather busy summer of recruiting. One could be forgiven for thinking that Gloucester is actually his Lions team that reached two consecutive Super Rugby finals, when they take to the pitch for their first game.
His son Ruan Ackermann joined him from the Lions last season and had a storming debut. Joining him this season from his old team are Franco Mostert, Ruan Dreyer, Jaco Kriel and Franco Marais. Jaco Kriel in particular is an outstanding loose forward and one that will unquestionably make an impact.
Other significant signings are Danny Cipriani and Matt Banahan.
Cipriani is one of England’s most gifted players but has never fulfilled that potential due to distractions off the field. In fact, his Gloucester career has already begun with an arrest in preseason!
That said this guy is a serious talent and showcased last season for Wasps that he is playing the very best rugby of his career.
Banahan, is another top signing. At 6 ft 7 in the winger brings plenty of power out wide, experience and is a class finisher. During his 12-year spell with Bath he scored 62-tries in the Premiership and at 31-years-of-age he still has plenty to offer. His physical approach will also fit in perfectly with the physicality played by Ackermann’s team.
I really think Gloucester will surprise a few people and at 12/1 to top the table during the regular season and 14/1 to win the Premiership, they could be a very good outside bet!
