Tiger to Roar Again or a Chance to Roll the Dice?
We take a sneak peak at the Grand National and it’s certainly not a done deal for Tiger Roll.
If you followed us in last years preview you would have had a successful day. Gordon Elliot was on a fantastic run and everything fell into place.
On paper everything points to Tiger Roll becoming the first horse since Red Rum to win back-to-back Grand Nationals. His form is excellent, jumps incredibly well for his size, doesn’t dismount his rider, stays for fun…the list goes on. But this is the Grand National and it’s far from a done deal. With 4.3 miles of running and 30 fences to navigate there are plenty of opportunities for the other 39 runners to spoil the favourites day.
In the last 20 years the favourite has won just twice and with Tiger Roll being backed into 7/2 he would become the shortest price favourite to win in exactly 100 years. That’s not to say it won’t happen but the price is totally prohibitive and I think there are a couple of horses with an excellent profile that have gone under the radar slightly.
So where is the value?
First up is Anibale Fly who was fourth in this race last year after finishing third in the 2018 Gold Cup. He went one better at Cheltenham last month, finishing second behind Al Boum Photo so who is to say he can’t follow that up with an improvement at Aintree. Seems to relish running in a big-field with some great wins under his belt and while short at 12/1, looks like very good value each way bet.
It’s difficult to find a longer odds tip that ticks all the desired boxes but I am looking for horses that jump well, are carrying a fair weight and have a progressive profile, which suggests they might be able to find a bit extra when really pushed in the biggest race of the year.
Jury Duty is the second of my picks and hits all those characteristics – running for Gordon Elliot’s yard and Tiger Roll’s stablemate. He has won on his last two starts including the American Grand National and most recently at Down Royal where he was carrying over a stone more than he will on Sunday. An assured jumper who has never been pulled up or fallen, I’ll be backing at the current 20/1 odds.
A triple Grade One winner outsider?
As a general rule I try and avoid tipping horses who have let me down in the past but for some reason Valseur Lido catches the eye again. He was in contention 12 months ago with four to jump but ran out of steam and ended up finishing eighth. This year he is carrying nearly a stone less and conditions should make it (slightly) less of a slog. Everyone loves an each way nibble on a long shot in the national and he will be mine at 66/1.